With Congress back in session, bills are getting some attention, Roger Christie walks out of prison, the PA Senate will take up medical marijuana next week, smoke-in in Bogota, and more. Let's get to it:
[image:1 align:right caption:true]Marijuana Policy
Hawaii's THC Minister Roger Christie Walks Out of Federal Prison. Roger Christie walked out of a federal detention center near Honolulu uncowed today after nearly 50 months behind bars on marijuana charges related to his THC Ministry. He had done nearly four years without bail awaiting trial before he and his wife accepted a plea deal that resulted in release for time served. He is vowing to lead the fight to legalize marijuana in the Aloha State.
LA Rally Marks a Century of Marijuana Prohibition, Calls for Its End. A rally at City Hall in Los Angeles yesterday marked the 100th anniversary of the state's first pot bust, in which state Board of Pharmacy agents cut down and seized $500 worth of "Indian Hemp" in the city's Sonoratown Mexican colony. The event was sponsored by Cal NORML and the California Coalition for Cannabis Policy Reform. Several current and former Los Angeles elected officials attended.
Oregon Legalization Campaign Contributes to Get Out the Youth Vote Effort. New Approach Oregon, the folks behind the Measure 91 legalization initiative, have contributed $100,000 to a voter registration effort conducted by the state's major progressive political groups, Our Oregon. The campaign has identified increasing youth turn-out in this off-year election as a key campaign goal.
Charlotte's Web Medical Hemp Act Picks Up More Sponsors. The bill, HR 5226, is picking up more sponsors every day. It got three more Wednesday and two more yesterday. The newest cosponsors are Reps. Jared Polis (D-CO), Peter Welch (D-VT), John Yarmuth (D-KY), John Delaney (D-MD), and Beto O'Rourke (D-TX). The bill, which was introduced at the end of July, now has 21 cosponsors -- 13 Democrats and eight Republicans.
Preserving Welfare for Needs Not Weed Act Gains New Sponsor. The bill, HR 4137, would bar the use of EBT cards from the food stamp program in marijuana stores. Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-TX) becomes the 15th cosponsor. All the cosponsors are Republicans.
Pennsylvania Senate to take Up Medical Marijuana Next Week. Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi (R-Chester) said Wednesday night he plans to caucus on whether to move forward with Senate Bill 1182, saying the bill has "broad support" in the legislature.
Iowa Legislature Panel Says Medical Marijuana Should be Grown in State. A bipartisan legislative committee studying the state's CBD oil medical marijuana law has recommended growing and distributing it in the state and reclassifying marijuana under state law. The vote was largely along party lines, with only one Republican voting for Iowa-grown medical marijuana.
Civil Asset Forfeiture Reform Act Picks Up More Cosponsors. The bill, HR 5212, would provide additional protections against civil asset forfeiture efforts by law enforcement and prosecutors. The newest cosponsors are Reps. Rob Bishop (R-UT), Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Michael Conaway (R-TX), and Paul Broun (R-GA). The bill has nine cosponsors, all Republicans.
California Initiative to Drug Test Doctors Losing Ground. A new Field Poll finds that Proposition 46, a medical malpractice initiative that includes a provision mandating drug testing for doctors, is well under 50%, with support declining. Support for the measure is at 34%, with 37% opposed and 29% undecided. It had led earlier, but support is evaporating in the face of a multi-million dollar "no" campaign funded by doctors, medical groups, and insurance companies.
Second Chance Reauthorization Act Picks Up New Sponsors, Hearing Set Next Week. The bill, SB 1690, would amend the existing act to broaden access to family-based drug treatment and other reentry services. The newest cosponsors are Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Mazie Hirono (D-HI). The Senate Judiciary Committee will take it up next Thursday.
Smoke-In in Front of the Colombian Congress. The Colombian Congress was the scene of a peaceful marijuana smoke-in Thursday, with demonstrators demanding the legalization of the drug. Demonstration leaders vowed to continue protests, "rolling joints in any place" in the capital city, Bogota. The demo comes as the Congress considers a medical marijuana bill.
Chronicle AM: Mexican Coca, Saudis Behead Another Trafficker, Feds Raid LA Fashion District, More (9/11/14)
A federal CBD medical marijuana bill picks up more sponsors, so does a federal asset forfeiture reform bill, Georgia advocates want whole whole plant medical marijuana, Mexico's first coca patch is busted, Saudi Arabia beheads another drug offender, and more. Let's get to it:
[image:1 align:left caption:true]Marijuana Policy
York, Maine, Selectmen Refuse to Put Legalization Initiative on Ballot, But… Town selectmen voted against putting the initiative from Citizens for a Safer Maine on the November ballot, but since petitioners have already gathered sufficient signatures to force the issue, they can get their petition notarized to be placed on the ballot. York will join Lewiston and South Portland in voting on initiatives this year; Portland approved one last year.
Charlotte's Web Medical Hemp Act Picks Up More Sponsors. The Charlotte's Web Medical Hemp Act (HR 5226), which would exclude cannabidiol (CBD) from the definition of marijuana, has gained new sponsors. It now has 19 cosponsors -- 11 Democrats and eight Republicans. The latest are Reps. Ann Wagner (R-MO), Matthew Cartwright (D-PA), and Chris Stewart (R-UT).
Georgia Advocates Call for Whole Plant Medical Marijuana, Not Just CBD Oil. As legislative hearings in Macon continue to examine the use of CBD oil, medical marijuana advocates are calling for whole plant medical marijuana. "The cannabis plant contains many compounds that have proven to be effective in treating a variety of conditions," said Georgia C.A.R.E director James Bell. "We should not be determining who can and cannot benefit from this healing plant."
Civil Asset Forfeiture Act Picks Up New Sponsors. The bill, HR 5212, now has five cosponsors. The latest are Reps. Stevan Pearce (R-NM), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), and Reid Ribble (R-WI). All cosponsors so far are Republicans. The bill, filed by Rep. Tim Wahlberg (R-MI), would increase citizen protections against federal asset forfeiture actions.
Feds Raid LA Fashion District in Cartel Money Laundering Probe. More than a thousand law enforcement officers spread out across LA's fashion district Wednesday, raiding more than 60 warehouses, storefronts, and residences, arresting nine people and seizing $65 million in cash that they said was being laundered for Mexican drug trafficking organizations. The feds called the mass bust Operation Fashion Police.
OAS Head Claims Regional Consensus on Drug Reform. Speaking in front of the Inter-American Dialog in Washington, DC, Organization of American States (OAS) Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza said Wednesday that regional leaders have reached consensus on four drug policy reform issues: to emphasize a public health approach, to seek out alternatives to incarceration, to stay strong against organized crime, and to work on strengthening regional institutions. Insulza's remarks come ahead of an OAS Special General Assembly to be held in Guatemala next week.
Mexico's First Coca Plantation Discovered in Chiapas. Mexican soldiers have seized more than 1,600 coca plants being cultivated in southern Chiapas state, near the Guatemalan border. Mexican military and UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) officials said it was the first time coca planting had been discovered in the country. "It's a pretty troubling discovery," said UNODC Mexico representative Antonio Mazzitelli. It could amount to "a small-scale experiment to see if there is a possibility of replicating" coca production in Mexico. Coca is currently grown only in the Andes, although there is nothing stopping it from being cultivated elsewhere.
Saudi Arabia Beheads Another Drug Offender. Authorities in Saudi Arabia Tuesday beheaded a Pakistani national convicted of smuggling "a large quantity of heroin." They have executed at least seven other drug traffickers in recent weeks, and 49 people overall so far this year. It's unclear how many of the 49 were drug offenders.
The Florida initiative is in a close fight, hearings are coming in Hawaii, draft regulations are coming in Maryland, Illinois begins taking medical marijuana business applications, and more. Let's get to it:
Last Thursday, a federal judge denied a request from Lake County patients for a temporary restraining order barring the county from carrying out searches and eradications under its Measure N grow rules. US District Judge Thelton Henderson ruled that the claims did not meet the legal standard required for a temporary restraining order, but held that plaintiffs could still seek a preliminary injunction.
Last Thursday, a new poll had the state medical marijuana initiative coming up just short. A new Florida Decides poll has a majority in favor of the Measure 2 medical marijuana initiative, but not the super-majority needed to pass a constitutional amendment. The poll had support at 57%, but 60% is needed. But the poll also had 17% undecided, and if only a fraction of the undecided break in favor of the initiative, it could win. Another poll earlier this week had support at 64%.
Last Friday, officials announced public hearings on dispensaries. A task force created by the state legislature to address dispensary issues will hold public hearings this week in Hilo and on September 24 in Honolulu. Click on the link for more details and information about how to submit public comments.
On Monday, the state began accepting applications for medical marijuana businesses. The state Agriculture Department is now taking applications from people who want to open dispensaries or cultivation centers. There are 22 licenses available for growers and 60 for dispensaries.
On Wednesday, the state was waiting for new draft medical marijuana regulations. The Maryland Medical Marijuana Commission was expected to release a second draft of regulations for the state's medical marijuana program today. The first draft came under public criticism last month for, among other things, language that would have barred grows or dispensaries within the Baltimore city limits. That language has been removed. Stay tuned for the actual draft.
Last Friday, a Princeton employee was put on paid leave over his medical marijuana use. Princeton University campus dining manager Don DeZarn, who had been told to choose between his job and his medicine after he began legally using medical marijuana this summer, is now on paid leave as the school attempts to resolve the issue. The problem arose after DeZarn said he might use the drug while at work and school public safety officials raised concerns he could be impaired and might accidentally give a student with food allergies the wrong item (or something).
For extensive information about the medical marijuana debate, presented in a neutral format, visit MedicalMarijuana.ProCon.org.]
The House backs off on DC decrim, Maryland awaits medical marijuana draft rules, asset forfeiture is in the news, so is SWAT, Russia says "nyet" to drug legalization, and more. Let's get to it:
[image:1 align:left caption:true]Marijuana Policy
House Won't Challenge DC Decriminalization Law. House Republicans yesterday unveiled their continuing resolution for an appropriations bill that includes spending for the District of Columbia, and it doesn't include an amendment adopted by the Appropriations Committee in July that would have barred the District from implementing its recently passed law decriminalizing the possession of small amounts of marijuana.
Colorado Retail Marijuana Sales in July Greater than Medical Marijuana Sales for First Time. The Department of Revenue has reported that July recreational marijuana sales were $29.7 million, compared to $28.9 million for medical marijuana sales. That's the first time recreational sales have surpassed medical sales, which are not subject to the same tax burden on consumers as recreational sales.
Another Poll Finds Coloradans Still Like Their Legal Pot. A new NBC/Marist Poll has found that Colorado's retail cannabis market remains popular among Colorado residents, 55% of whom continue to support the passage and implementation of Amendment 64, the 2012 initiative that legalized taxed and regulated sales to adults. Other recent polls have also showed support hovering in the mid-50s.
Maryland Awaiting New Draft Regulations Today. The Maryland Medical Marijuana Commission was expected to release a second draft of regulations for the state's medical marijuana program today. The first draft came under public criticism last month for, among other things, language that would have barred grows or dispensaries within the Baltimore city limits. That language has been removed. Stay tuned for the actual draft.
Montana Legislators Plan Asset Forfeiture Reform Bill. Two freshman legislators from Billings, Reps. Daniel Zolnikov (R) and Kelly McCarthy (D) plan to introduce legislation to reform the state's civil asset forfeiture law. The proposed legislation would create a public database on asset forfeiture, require a criminal conviction before forfeiture, protect innocent property-owners from seizures for actions of co-owners, and possibly drop civil forfeiture altogether.
Civil Asset Forfeitures Have Doubled During Obama's Tenure. As part of its ongoing investigative series on asset forfeiture, The Washington Post reports today civil asset forfeitures have more than doubled since President Obama took office. They were at $508 million in 2008, increasing to $1.1 billion last year. Since 2001, police have seized at least $2.5 billion in cash from people never convicted of a crime.
Philadelphia Homeowners Seek Injunction to Block Forfeiture Seizures. A group of homeowners in the city has asked a federal judge to block the city from seizing homes, cars, and other property. The homeowners, who include a couple who lost their home after their adult son sold $40 worth of heroin to an undercover cop, have filed a lawsuit alleging that the city's asset forfeiture practices are unconstitutional. The city conducts more than 6,000 forfeiture actions a year, and local law enforcement is allowed to keep a percentage of the proceeds.
Georgia SWAT Raid That Burned Toddler Goes to Grand Jury. A Habersham County grand jury will look into a May SWAT team no-knock drug raid that found neither drugs nor the suspect, but resulted in severe burns and injuries to a 19-month-old toddler when a SWAT team member tossed a flash-bang grenade into his crib. Bounkham "Bou Bou" Phonesavanh was hospitalized for weeks and is still undergoing medical treatment, which the county has so far refused to pay for. DA Brian Rickman said the grand jury will examine both the investigation leading up to the raid and whether anyone should face criminal charges for it. The grand jury goes to work on September 29.
Oregon SWAT Team Arrests Man for Videotaping Drug Raid. Gresham resident Fred Marlow was arrested by police after he refused to stop filming a SWAT raid on a neighbor's home and go inside his own home as ordered. Marlow has uploaded his videotaped exchange with SWAT team members, who accused him of interfering with their operation. When Marlow told police his video was going direct to the cloud, he was then arrested on charges of interference and -- you guessed it -- resisting arrest. Filming in public spaces is not a crime, according to the ACLU, which has a web page on photographers' rights.
Key Australian Federal Senator Says Legalize Drugs. Senator David Leyonhelm (LD-NSW) has called for the legalization of both hard and soft drugs as a means of curbing organized crime. He said pot should be sold in supermarkets, while drugs such as cocaine and heroin should be available for purchase from the government.
In Response to Global Commission Report, Russian Drug Agency Rules Out Legalization. Responding to yesterday's release of a new report from the Global Commission on Drugs calling for decriminalization and the regulated sale of drugs, the Federal Drug Control Service said today it rejected the notion, warning that such a move could lead to non-repairable damage to the nation.
Chronicle AM: Philly Decriminalizing, Global Commission Report, Police Militarization Hearing, More (9/9/14)
Philly will decriminalize, the Global Commission on Drugs issues a ground-breaking new report, LEAP's Norm Stamper testifies on police militarization, Jodie Emery runs for parliament, there's medical marijuana news from Europe and South America, and more. Let's get to it:
[image:1 align:right caption:true]Philadelphia Will Decriminalize Marijuana Possession. Mayor Michael Nutter announced today that he will sign a municipal ordinance decriminalizing the possession of up to an ounce of marijuana. The city council passed the measure in June, but Nutter had held out for changes that he has now obtained, including requiring court appearances for those caught with pot (but no criminal charges) and, for those caught actually toking up, the imposition of a $100 fine for smoking in public on top of the $25 fine for possession. Decriminalization is expected to go into effect on October 20.
World Political Leaders Call for Radical New Direction in Drug Policies. In a report released last night and in a New York City press conference this morning, a number of global leaders, including former heads of state, called for drug decriminalization and the regulation of psychoactive drug markets. Those same global leaders are meeting this afternoon with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon and his deputy, Jan Eliasson. These world leaders are members of the Global Commission on Drugs and their new report is Taking Control: Pathways to Drug Policies that Work. Click on the title link for a full report.
Drug Policy Forum of California Publishes 2014 Voters's Guide.The guide covers all candidates for state and congressional office and all local ballot measures concentrating on marijuana- and drug policy-related stances and issues. Click on the link to check it out.
Norm Stamper Testifies Before Senate on Police Militarization. Former Seattle Police Chief Norm Stamper, a long-time member of Law Enforcement Against Prohibition (LEAP), testified today before the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee on the militarization of law enforcement in the post-9/11 era. Click on the link to read his submitted remarks in full.
Nevada Officials, Lawmakers Call for Careful Review, Revision of Marijuana DUID Law. The state currently has a strict DUID law, meaning the presence of more than 2 nanograms per million of detectable THC in a driver's blood makes drivers "per se" guilty of driving under the influence, but a growing number of lawmakers, prosecutors, and advocates are calling for the legislature to review and possibly revise that law next year. They are looking for some way of measuring marijuana impairment that actually measures impairment, not THC in the blood. Some are holding up California as a model. That state has no legal standard, but instead relies on the judgment of police at the scene. In California, prosecutors can use blood test results as evidence, but must still prove actual impairment.
Jodie Emery Officially Files to Run for Canadian Parliament. Jodie Emery, the wife of just released from US prison "Prince of Pot" Marc Emery and an effective activist in her own right, has officially filed for the Liberal Party nomination to run as a member of parliament representing the Vancouver East riding. That seat is currently held by New Democratic Party stalwart Libby Davies, herself an avid drug reformer, and Davies is widely expected to retain the seat.
Italian Army to Grow Medical Marijuana. Italian media are reporting that the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Defense have agreed that the military will grow medical marijuana at a military-run pharmaceutical factory in Florence. Italy allows for the use of medical marijuana, but there are no legal private growers, leaving patients to obtain supplies abroad and leaving the Italian health care system footing the bill. The move is designed both to cut costs and to ensure that the drug is produced under strict controls.
Chilean Government Approves First Medical Marijuana Farm. The governor of metropolitan Santiago announced yesterday that the county's first medical marijuana production operation had been approved by the Agricultural Livestock Service. The operation will grow marijuana for medical and research purposes and is expected to produce cannabis oil as well. The farm will be sponsored by La Florida, a Santiago municipality, as well as Fundación Daya, "a nonprofit organization whose purpose is to research and promotion of alternative therapies to alleviate human suffering."
Labor Day has come and gone, and the 2014 election is now less than two months away. Marijuana legalization initiatives are on the ballot in two states -- Alaska and Oregon -- and the District of Columbia. For the marijuana reform movement, 2014 is a chance for a legalization trifecta on the way to an even bigger year in 2016, but there is also the risk that losing in one or more states this year could take the momentum out of a movement that has been on a seemingly unstoppable upward trend.
[image:1 align:right][Editor's Note: There are also local marijuana reform initiatives in several states, a Florida medical marijuana initiative, and a California sentencing reform initiative. The Chronicle will address those in later articles.]
The Alaska and Oregon initiatives are quite similar. Both envision systems of taxation, regulation, and legal sales, and both allow individuals to grow small amounts of marijuana for their own use. The DC initiative, on the other hand, does not allow for taxation, regulation, and legal sales. That is because of peculiarities in DC law, which do not allow initiatives to enter the domain of taxation. But like the Alaska and Oregon measures, the DC initiative also allows individuals to grow their own.
Alaska Measure 2
The Measure 2 initiative allows adults 21 and over to possess up to an ounce and up to six plants (three flowering). It also allows individual growers to possess the fruits of their harvest even in excess of one ounce, provided the marijuana stays on the premises where it was grown. The initiative also legalizes paraphernalia.
The initiative grants regulatory oversight to the state Alcoholic Beverage Control Board, but gives the legislature the authority to create a new entity, the Marijuana Control Board. In either case, the regulatory authority will have nine months to create regulations, with applications for marijuana businesses to open one year after the initiative becomes effective.
A $50 an ounce excise tax on sales or transfers from growers to retailers or processors would be imposed.
The initiative does not alter either existing DUI laws or the ability of employers to penalize employees for testing positive for marijuana.
The initiative would not interfere with existing medical marijuana laws.
Oregon Measure 91
The Measure 91 initiative allows adults 21 and over to possess up to eight ounces and four plants per household. Individuals can also possess up to 16 ounces of marijuana products or 72 ounces of liquid marijuana products. And individuals can also transfer up to an ounce of marijuana, 16 ounces of marijuana products, or 72 ounces of liquid marijuana products to other adults for "non-commercial" purposes.
The initiative would designate the Oregon Liquor Control Commission to regulate marijuana commerce. The commission would license, audit, and inspect growers, suppliers, and retailers. The commission could set purchase amount limits, which are not specified in the initiative. The commission would have until January 4, 2016 to begin licensing growers, producers, and retailers.
Marijuana sales from producers to processors or retailers would be taxed at a rate of $35 per ounce, $10 per ounce of leaves, and $5 per immature plant. The commission can recommend to the legislature any changes in the tax structure, which would then have to act to enact them.
The initiative does not alter either existing DUI laws or the ability of employers to penalize employees for testing positive for marijuana.
The initiative would not interfere with existing medical marijuana laws.
DC Measure 71
The Measure 71 initiative would allow adults 21 and over to possess up to two ounces of marijuana and six plants, three of which can be mature. Households could grow up to 12 plants, six of which can be mature. Growers can possess the fruits of their harvests. Plants could only be grown indoors.
Adults could transfer up to an ounce to other adults without remuneration. There are no provisions for taxing and regulating marijuana sales because District law forbids initiatives from taking up tax and revenue matters. A bill is pending before the DC city council that would do precisely that.
The initiative also legalizes the sale and possession of pot paraphernalia. It does not change existing DUI law, nor does it "make unlawful" any conduct covered by the District's medical marijuana law.
None of these measures are long-shots at the ballot box, although none appear to be shoe-ins, either. None of the campaigns have made internal polling available, but an Oregon poll this summer had 51% in favor of a generic legalization question, with 41% opposed. A DC poll in January had 63% in favor of legalization.
[image:2 align:left]Alaska is looking a little dicier, at least according to the most recent Public Policy Polling survey, which had the initiative trailing by five points after leading by three points (but still under 50%) in May. But, as we shall see below, there are questions about the reliability of the survey data there.
There are a number of factors other than public opinion that could influence whether these initiatives pass or fail. They include voter turnout in an off-year election, financial support for the campaigns, and the degree of organized opposition.
The Chronicle checked in with a number of national marijuana reform professionals and people involved with the initiatives to get a sense of the prospects, the challenges, and the implications of electoral success or defeat. There is a sense of cautious optimism, tempered with concerns that won't be allayed until the votes are counted.
"All three measures have a great chance of passing, and it'll really be a matter of how well these campaigns get their message out," said Mason Tvert, communications director for the Marijuana Policy Project. "There's also the question of what type of opposition there is, and how well it's funded. I'm familiar with the opposition in Alaska, and it's just more of the same old. They're trying to make marijuana sound as scary as possible, and it's up to those campaigns to make sure voters know it's not so scary."
It's about getting out the message and getting out the vote, Tvert said.
"Typically, the more turnout, the more support for making marijuana legal," said Tvert. "We would expect to see broader support during a presidential election year, but we'll find out if support is strong enough to pass these in an off-year. All these measures can pass, but these campaigns have to get their message out."
The National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML) has endorsed all three initiatives, not having found anything too objectionable in any of them.
"When you're in the marijuana legalization business, that's what you do," explained NORML executive director Allen St. Pierre. "All three entities involved requested our endorsement, and our board of directors voted unanimously to do so," he explained.
"Oregon and Alaska are very similar, and while DC is the least impactful in what it seeks to achieve, but they all basically move the meter," he said. "If one or all of them pass, they will be seen as a good thing; if we get a full sweep, that will only affirm that we are now in the legalization epoch."
But can marijuana legalization pull off that trifecta this year?
"Alaska looks like it's in the most trouble, but with the caveat that polling there is hard to nail down," St. Pierre said. "That makes it all the more important for reformers to embrace the effort there, send resources, and encourage others to do the same. We're raising money for all three states right now on our web site, and Alaska is getting the least amount of earmarked donations -- and those are coming in from Alaskans. It's the proverbial out of sight, out of mind state, but it's one where you can actually impact an election at relatively low cost."
Frank Berardi of the Alaska Coalition for Responsible Cannabis Legislation had plenty to say about the polling.
"If you look at the polls, it's close, but in that 44% poll, the way they worded the question doesn't even reflect the language of the initiative, and since the question was inaccurate, a lot of people who would have been in support said no," he said. "Also, the age distribution was off -- it was mostly older people who were polled. And if you take the margin of error into consideration, it's a toss-up. It makes me wonder what the results would have been if the poll had been valid."
The coalition is working with the Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol in Alaska to pass Measure 2, but there is something of a division of labor between the two groups, Berardi explained.
"We're partnered with the campaign, but while they're focused on passing this is November, we're focusing on helping to implement the regulatory aspects of the bill," he said. "We've been polling our members about what they want, and we hope to work with the legislature on ensuring the people get what they want."
Still, the coalition isn't just waiting for Measure 2 to pass.
[image:3 align:right]"We're helping out on the campaign, we go to events, we've share a booth with the campaign, we're informing people about the measure and out goals," he said.
People are equally hard at work down in Oregon.
"We are fighting for every vote, and we don’t take any vote for granted, but we feel like we have a really strong case and a growing majority of Oregonians support us," said Peter Zuckerman, communications director for New Approach Oregon, the group behind Measure 91.
"The challenge is going to be turnout," he said. "We really need our voters to register and vote. The polls have us ahead, but we need voters, volunteers, donors -- all the help we can get."
The campaign is getting significant help. It has raised millions in campaign funds and has a $2.3 million TV ad reservation. And it has a well-honed message.
"In Oregon, somebody gets arrested or cited for marijuana once every 39 minutes," Zuckerman said. "Seven percent of all arrests are for marijuana. Treating it as a crime has failed. With a regulated market, police will not be distracted with small marijuana cases. Instead of people buying it on street corners, they can buy it in a regulated marketplace. It's a much better system."
The campaign is also picking up key endorsements. It's won the support of the state's largest and most influential newspaper, The Oregonian, the Democratic Party, and the well-heeled City Club of Portland. It's even won the support of the Oregon State Council of Retired Citizens. (Click here for the complete list of endorsements.)
"Every endorsement helps," said Zuckerman.
"Oregon is going to make it," NORML's St. Pierre predicted, citing polling so far, key endorsements like The Oregonian, and a changing political climate.
"Gov. Kitzhaber has made it clear that if he is reelected and the citizens task him with this, he will faithfully implement it," he said. "Oregon is a state that is environmentally conscious, and he was concerned about energy use. He wanted alternatives to indoor cultivation. But you can set up greenhouses -- safe, water-friendly, criminal-deterring greenhouses. And not only is Kitzhaber keen, Attorney General Ellen Rosenbaum is very supportive. She's probably one of the most progressive attorneys general in the country."
St. Pierre also argued that Oregon pot people are coming around to regulation.
"The industry itself, as in Colorado, seems to recognize that there is a better opportunity for both legitimacy and profits if they embrace legalization, as compared to some brethren in California and Washington who chose to oppose it," he said. "This is the state where voters have been asked the legalization question the most, and I think finally Oregon is going to break out."
A victory in Oregon would carry the most weight, the NORML head said.
"That would move the meter the most. It would be actual sales, taxation, and regulation, and it's not as out of sight as Alaska. And it would cinch up the Pacific Northwest."
And then there's DC.
"DC is kind of symbolic, it's not legalization in the purest sense of the word, but it goes as far as it can under DC law," said St. Pierre. "But it's building in the District, going from medical to decriminalization being almost universally supported, and now building to soft legalization. That will de-incentivize police, they won't have any reason to ask what's in your hand, what's in your pocket."
"I feel like we're in the lead, but I'm very nervous about a well-funded opposition mounting," said Adam Eidinger of the DC Cannabis Campaign, which is leading the charge in the nation's capital. "We have no great war chest and we could be caught flat-footed. I don't want to be overconfident; I would rather have a well-funded campaign to assure victory."
Eidinger said the DC campaign had $50,000 in pending pledged contributions, but less than $2,000 in the bank right now. He said he's had problems raising money not only from advocacy groups, but also from the industry, which also contributes to the advocacy groups.
"I don't think we were on the advocacy groups' schedule," he said, adding that some had also expressed skepticism about whether the measure would ever be implemented even if it won because of possible city council or congressional interference.
"Nonprofits are getting a lot of money from the cannabis industry, but in our case, there is no clear business model for profiting from selling cannabis or having exclusive rights to growing it," Eidinger pointed out. "Even some dispensaries have painted this as a threat to their near monopoly. We do not have aligning interests. Monopolies and price supports don't benefit consumers or anyone except business entities and the government."
The campaign is getting some financial backing from the Drug Policy Alliance, but it needs more help, he said.
"You need to talk to your family and friends and get them to support the campaign with donations, with voter registrations, and as election day volunteers," Eidinger said. "We will be doing a postering blitz, we're planning some mailers, but with less so little money in the bank right now, we need a major influx of cash. We blew everything we could leverage just getting on the ballot."
Three initiatives, three chances to win marijuana legalization victories this year. But the stakes are high, and they go beyond 2014.
"This is the penultimate year, and if we have any losses, our opponents will immediately claim we're losing momentum, that whatever has happened has peaked, and that would be really regrettable," St. Pierre suggested.
"But 2016 is the ultimate year. If California moves forward -- it will likely be joined by Maine or Massachusetts, but California is so important, if it legalizes, America will legalize, and North America will move in the same direction, and so will the European Union," he said. "But if we lose this year, that makes the job in 2016 that much harder. If we lose in Alaska or Oregon, that will provide fodder for the opposition."
MPP's Tvert was a bit more sanguine.
"We're in a position where we will continue to move forward, and it's unlikely we will move backwards," Tvert said. "In Colorado in 2006, people told us we were crazy to run an initiative because we would lose and the state would never legalize marijuana, but public opinion is moving toward ending prohibition, and we expect to see that continue. And even if one or more don't pass this year, we will surely see several pass in the near future."